Met Office Weather Edinburgh – Hourly Forecast and Warnings

Edinburgh wakes to sunny intervals and 10°C on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, though gusts reaching 35mph create a chill that feels closer to 6°C. The Met Office reports minimal precipitation risk through the afternoon, with conditions set to deteriorate overnight as temperatures fall and rain probability rises.

Data from the national weather service positions the Scottish capital several degrees above historical averages for late March, when thermometers typically peak at 8°C. However, wind speeds and variable cloud cover will dominate the immediate outlook, with a distinct cooling trend emerging after sunset.

What is the Current Weather in Edinburgh According to the Met Office?

• Rain probability remains below 5% through early afternoon, rising significantly after dark
• Wind gusts peaking at 35mph from the west-northwest create a distinct chill factor
• March 31 offers 12 hours of daylight, with sunrise at 05:46 and sunset at 18:49
• Current temperatures exceed the historical March average maximum of 8°C
• UV index remains low at 2, typical for early spring conditions
• Overnight lows expected to drop to 4°C by 7am Wednesday

What is the Weather Forecast for Edinburgh Today and Hourly?

Today’s Highs and Lows

The mercury will climb to 13°C during Tuesday afternoon before retreating to 7°C overnight, according to extended forecasts. These figures sit comfortably above climate averages for March in eastern Scotland, which typically restrict daytime peaks to 8°C and nighttime lows to 1°C.

Despite the mild air temperature, wind patterns will dominate the perceived conditions. Sustained breezes of 19mph with significantly stronger gusts will maintain the “feels like” temperature at 6°C or lower throughout the daylight hours.

Hourly Breakdown

Afternoon stability gives way to evening volatility. The Hourly Forecast (Met Office) documents a steady decline from 10°C at 3pm to 9°C by 5pm as cloud cover increases. Precipitation probability remains minimal until 6pm, when it jumps to 30%.

By 7pm, wind gusts intensify to 39mph while the “feels like” temperature drops to 3°C. The transition past midnight brings the highest rain risk at 50%, with thermometers settling at 6°C. Dawn on Wednesday approaches with readings near 4°C and sustained precipitation chances of 30%.

What Does the Met Office 14-Day Forecast Say for Edinburgh?

Weekly Outlook

The extended outlook reveals fluctuating mild conditions through early April, with daily highs ranging between 11°C and 13°C. AccuWeather data indicates Wednesday, April 1 will bring a sharp nocturnal drop to 2°C, followed by gradual moderation into the mid-week.

Thursday and Friday maintain consistent patterns: highs near 11-12°C, lows around 2-3°C, with variable cloud cover dominating the skyline. The weekend forecast suggests continued unsettled conditions, aligning with broader patterns affecting central and eastern Scotland.

Trends and Changes

Metcheck analysis highlights light rain imminent on Tuesday evening, with shower activity intensifying through Wednesday. Maximum temperatures will struggle to reach 7°C on Wednesday under persistent precipitation, contrasting sharply with Tuesday’s relative warmth.

Long-range meteorological models indicate a higher probability of wet and windy periods persisting through the remainder of the forecast window. Temperatures will fluctuate rather than trend consistently toward warmth or cold, reflecting typical transitional spring patterns for the region.

Are There Any Weather Warnings or Alerts for Edinburgh?

Active Warnings

The Met Office Warnings system signals significant unsettled weather affecting Scotland. A wet and windy spell developed late Saturday into Sunday prior to the current reporting period, with heavy rainfall accumulations potentially reaching 100mm in southwest Scotland. These conditions generated travel disruption and localized flooding concerns across the central belt.

For the immediate Edinburgh area, no specific severe weather warnings are active for Tuesday, March 31. However, the broader three-month outlook confirms elevated risks for storm systems and heavy precipitation throughout March 2026, consistent with late-winter climatological patterns.

Radar and Precipitation

Live radar imagery is not directly accessible through current data feeds. Precipitation probability mapping from the Met Office indicates a sharp divide between daytime stability and overnight moisture. Rain chances escalate from negligible values Tuesday afternoon to 30% by 6pm, 50% at midnight, and 70% by Wednesday evening.

Historical context suggests Edinburgh experiences approximately 18 rainy days during March, accumulating 57mm of precipitation. The current forecast appears consistent with this pattern, particularly as the month concludes.

How Does Edinburgh’s Weather Evolve Throughout Tuesday?

1. 3pm: 10°C with sunny intervals; wind gusts peak at 35mph
2. 5pm: Temperature falls to 9°C; cloud cover increases
3. 6pm: Rain probability jumps to 30%; sustained winds 16mph
4. 7pm: Gusts reach 39mph; feels like temperature drops to 3°C
5. 11pm: 7°C sustained; rain risk remains below 5%
6. 12am: Temperature 6°C; rain probability peaks at 50%
7. 7am Wednesday: Dawn breaks at 4°C with 30% precipitation chance

What Forecast Details Are Confirmed Versus Uncertain?

Meteorological confidence varies across different timescales and parameters. The table below distinguishes between established observations and forecast elements subject to revision.

How Does This Weather Fit Edinburgh’s Climate Profile?

Late March typically marks a transitional phase for the Scottish capital. Historical data from Weather2Travel establishes average maximum temperatures of 8°C and minimums of 1°C, with the city receiving roughly three hours of sunshine daily—equivalent to 27% of available daylight.

Tuesday’s observed 10°C at dawn and projected high of 13°C represent a significant positive anomaly compared to these norms. However, the 57mm of rainfall spread across 18 days during a typical March means precipitation remains an ever-present consideration, particularly as the current forecast indicates increasing moisture overnight.

Long-term outlooks through January-March 2026 suggest a higher-than-average probability of wet and windy periods, with balanced chances of mild and cold spells rather than sustained extremes. This aligns with the observed pattern of fluctuating temperatures and active weather systems affecting the region.

What Do Official Meteorological Sources Indicate?

The United Kingdom’s national forecasting service provides the foundational data for current conditions. Their observations establish the baseline for all subsequent analysis.

Wet and windy weather is expected late Saturday into Sunday, with heavy rain bringing the potential for travel disruption and flooding, particularly across southwest Scotland where 100mm could accumulate.

— Met Office 10-Day Outlook

The three-month outlook indicates higher chances of wet and windy periods through March 2026, with storms more likely during late-winter months, though overall temperatures unlikely to remain consistently cold.

— Met Office Seasonal Outlook

What Should Residents Expect?

Edinburgh experiences mild, relatively settled conditions Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching 13°C, though strong winds gusting to 35-39mph will maintain a chill factor near 3-6°C. The evening transition brings deteriorating conditions, with rain probability rising to 50% overnight and temperatures falling toward 4°C by dawn. Residents should prepare for variable spring weather through early April, with fluctuating temperatures between 2°C and 13°C and continued unsettled patterns likely.

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